HAO Colloquium - Elena Provornikova, JHUAPL

Ensemble modeling of interplanetary coronal mass ejections with internal flux rope in the inner heliosphere

Understanding the evolution of the CME magnetic structure as it propagates from Sun to Earth is a key aspect to advance forecasting of magnetic properties of a CME arriving at Earth and thus its impact on space weather. To analyze processes of interplanetary CME (ICME)/solar-wind interactions, we take a statistical approach and aim to perform unprecedent tens of thousands of data-driven global MHD simulations of ICME propagation in the inner heliosphere. We simulate the propagation of ICMEs in the inner heliosphere using a global model driven at the coronal boundary by the empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ADAPT model. ICMEs are initiated at 21.5 solar radii from the Sun using an MHD analytical Gibson-Low model of a self-similarly expanding magnetic flux rope with defining parameters (e.g., location, magnetic topology, angular width, magnetic field strength, speed, orientation). The ICME propagation is simulated using the inner heliosphere adaptation of the Grid Agnostic MHD for Extended Research Applications (GAMERA) MHD model, which is a reinvention of the high-heritage Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) code. A set of values for each of the defining Gibson-Low parameters was constrained by statistical representation of solar CME observations. In this talk I will review our simulation approach and modeling tools and present a case study where we simulate the geoeffective April 5, 2010 CME and reproduce observed temporal evolution of magnetic field components during flux rope passage of the Earth. I will present an initial ensemble of 144 ICME simulations with produced synthetic white-light images and review our approach to the analysis of large ensembles. 

Date and time: 
Wednesday, October 21, 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm