Living With A Star Focus Team

Role of solar flows and magnetic field dynamics in active regions emergence and impact on heliospheric space weather

In order to understand the origins and evolutions of solar magnetic activity occurring on a wide range of time-scales, and the space weather caused by the particulate and electromagnetic outputs that reach the Earth, we need to understand the physical origins of this activity below the photosphere. Despite it is generally agreed upon that the solar convection zone and the tachocline at its base contain a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo that produces, sustains and evolves the magnetic features we see at the surface and in the corona, the processes that are responsible for driving the solar interior MHD are not directly observed. Although much progress has been made in understanding these processes and their relation to observed solar velocities and magnetic activity, our understanding is far from complete, due to lack of consensus in observations in solar interior flows. The main objective of our focussed science team is to take joint effort to develop the most comprehensive, dynamically consistent picture possible of solar velocities at the surface, in the convection zone and tachocline, and determine the MHD effects induced by these motions, by building and/or employing MHD models capable of operating in data-driven and data-assimilative modes. The goal of our FST team is to develop consensus sets of observational constraints and simulate model-outputs of magnetic activity and flows, which can reliably be used as inputs to heliospheric and terrestrial-atmospheric models. The ultimate test of our success will be our ability to predict the features of solar cycle 25, including the active latitudes and longitudes, global and localized flows several months ahead. The various research groups included in this team cover all the observational and modelling capabilities, so all the essential components of expertise are present.

Overarching Goal: To advance our understanding of large-scale internal dynamics, magnetic flux creation and emergence, by linking solar interior global flows and localized active regions’ flows with short- and long-term solar magnetic variabilities, for forecasting/simulating reliable solar inputs to heliospheric and terrestrial models.

Sub-Goals:

  1. Develop a consensus set of observational constraints of surface and interiorflows, including hemispheric and latitudinal dependence.
  2. Model global magnetic activity and flows of the solar interior and assimilate observations
  3. Simulate active latitudes as well as active longitudes during the next solar cycle, and predict the magnitude and timing of the next solar maximum

 

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