Authors: Kok Leng Yeo, Sami K. Solanki, Matthias Rempel, Anusha Bhasari, Natalie A. Krivova, Alexander I. Shapiro, Rinat V. Tagi
How the solar electromagnetic energy entering the Earth’s atmosphere varied since pre-industrial times is an important consideration in the climate change debate. Detrimental to this debate, estimates of the rise in total solar irradiance, TSI, between the Maunder minimum, an extended period of weak solar activity preceding the industrial revolution, and the last solar 15 cycle minimum in 2008 differ markedly, ranging from 0.4 to 6 Wm-2. As a consequence, the exact contribution by solar forcing to the rise in global temperatures over the past centuries remains inconclusive. Adopting a novel approach based on state-of-the-art solar imagery and numerical simulations, we establish that TSI could not have risen since the Maunder minimum by more than 2.1±0.7 Wm-2, restricting the role of solar forcing in global warming.
Link to publication: Geophysical Research Letters