Satellite Drag and Sustainable Space Operations in a Dynamic Thermosphere
Earth's orbit is becoming increasingly congested and contested. Decreasing launch costs and maturing satellite technology have enabled rapid commercialization in LEO, where a small number of commercial entities now operate the large majority of active satellites as part of proliferated constellations. At the same time, fragmentation events from collisions, explosions, and anti-satellite weapons have contributed to a large and growing population of orbital debris. Increasing congestion has made collision avoidance maneuvering a regular part of satellite operations, with the Starlink constellation alone performing over 300,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in 2025. Solar cycle 25 has already shown how poor satellite drag modeling can cause failures in critical collision avoidance infrastructure needed to ensure space safety. This presentation describes the vital role that space weather and space climate play in affecting satellite drag in LEO. It presents a mutually beneficial path forward for space weather researchers and satellite operators to enable sustained robust satellite operations in the decades ahead.
Will Parker is a Senior Member of the Technical Staff in the Space Sciences Department at the Aerospace Corporation. He received his PhD in Aeronautics and Astronautics from MIT in 2025, specializing in astrodynamics and autonomy. His work focuses on the impact of space weather-induced atmospheric variability on the rapidly evolving state of satellite operations in LEO.